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3.1 The War on Terror has exacerbated the problems it sought to address
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The aftermath of the Cold War heralded its own era of instability. However, rather than
symbolising the United States’ misuse of overwhelming military capability as it does today
and the ‘shock and awe’ that its War on Terror has triggered, the post-Cold War iteration
was instead a projection of the world’s collective incredulity at the sudden collapse of
communism.
Basking in the afterglow of what it believed to be a decisive ideological triumph, the
United States quickly lost its edge. This apparently conclusive victory bestowed Washington
with a sense of invincibility and inherent superiority, prompting a collective malaise in
strategic planning. Carefully crafted alliances with such significant states as Pakistan and
Indonesia were left to fester as the raison d’être for their expedient construction collapsed.
Former Cold War theatres were left abandoned as post-communist states were left to forge
their own futures in relative isolation. It is truly remarkable that so many fledgling states
were established without substantial cost to their populations.
This geopolitical neglect quickly backfired upon the United States. Although clear markers
were put in place regarding what laid in store for the world’s sole superpower (including,
but not exclusively, foiled attacks on the World Trade Centre in 1993; a catastrophic
international intervention in Somalia between 1993 and 1995; terrorist attacks upon US
forces in Saudi Arabia in 1996), Washington’s strategic blinkers prevented it from reacting.
A foreign policy paradigm based upon traditional tenets of overwhelming military and
economic power was ill-positioned to react to the intricate threat matrix that emerged in
the 1990s. The United States’ ability to achieve total battlefield domination through the
power projection toolkit of overwhelming land, sea and air supremacy were suddenly not
enough, as a raft of security challenges emerged that transcended national boundaries.
Terrorism, disease, resource allocation and access to the basic fundamentals of life are now
uppermost in the thoughts of Western strategic planners; classic zero sum game, state-to state
conflict must rank very low in their priority lists.
While traditional military capabilities must be maintained by Western states, their
collective response to - and anticipation of – global threats is in desperate need of a fourth
arm. Although soft power mechanisms of diplomacy and addressing the legitimate political
grievances of disenfranchised populations around the world is still very much a work in
progress, their centrality to conflict prevention and resolution is without question.
War on Terror giving rise to legitimate political grievances
The local populations in the countries which lie at the heart of the WOT, namely Iraq,
Afghanistan and Somalia, share common grievances. They generally consider that the US is
waging a war against Islam whilst failing to bring about substantial improvements in the
quality of life. Regrettably, international proclamations have failed to realise and the
peoples of Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia lack a positive outlook for the future.
An especially worrying indicator of violence and extremism is the widespread state of anger
among the youth in the three WOT theatres. The existence of large groups of frustrated and
disenfranchised young men is a problem affecting the whole of the Muslim world and
beyond, and represents a real threat for all countries concerned with major implications for
national security and stability.
Angry Young Men: Stabilisation efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia at Risk
Since the 1970’s, leaders from the developing world have tried to deal with the
demographic pressures derived from having populations with a high percentage of young
people. This problem has been the subject of renewed international interest in recent years
because of its particular incidence in the Arab world, where people under 25 constitute 60
per cent of the population. Several studies and articles have analysed the impact of
exceptionally large numbers of youth, the so called “youth bulges”, on the security and
stability of a country. Research reveals a clear link between large youth numbers and
increased risks of social unrest, civil war and terrorism. This problematic demographic
represents a particularly formidable obstacle to peace and stability in war-torn countries
like Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan.
The United States Census Bureau classifies “youth bulges” as the demographic situation
where the proportion of young adults (from 15 to 29) to the overall adult population is
higher than 30 to 40 per cent. A recent study conducted by Henrik Urdal demonstrated
that the existence of youth bulges increases the risk of armed conflicts, rioting or
terrorism. The scholar explains that for every increase of 1 per cent in youth bulges, the
likelihood of conflict increases by 4 per cent, which means, for example, that countries
experiencing youth bulges of 35 per cent have a 150 per cent higher risk of suffering an
armed conflict than countries with a more stable age structure. Once more, these numbers
refer to general situations, illustrating the tough challenge faced by countries in already
unstable situations which have a large percentage of youth.
“Provide us with a good economic income, and then we’ll talk about democracy.”
Employee
Baghdad, May 2008 |
Notably, in Afghanistan around 47.9 per cent of the male adult population lies within the
youth bulge; in Iraq it is 45.2 per cent; and in Somalia, 37.5 per cent. Furthermore, the
demographic landscape for these countries is not expected to change considerably in
coming years: the population projections for the years 2007, 2025 and 2050 all show a
prominence of young people in the age group 0-29, indicating the continuation of a
relatively young society for at least the next 50 years.
The lack of legal economic opportunities in the Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan is
deeply worrying - unemployment rates are estimated at 47 per cent, 30 per cent
and 40 per cent (with much higher figures for those under 30), respectively.As manifested in these three theatres, unemployment, combined with legitimate grievances
such as corruption, political fragmentation and internal strife, has prompted young people
to behave violently and created an opportunity for extremist and armed groups to recruit
new fighters.